| Foundation
tier |
Higher tier |
Notes |
Resources |
| Probability of an event,
impossible events, certain events.
Use of words such as possible, likely.
Putting events into order of probability.
Probability on a scale from 0 to 1. |
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An appreciation of how
probability can be interpreted in real-life situations is expected. |
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| Probability as the limit o
relative frequency as the number of observations increases.
Equally likely events. |
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Illustrated practically by
example.
As a special case of the relative frequency
definition. |
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| Sample space: pictorial
representation; probability by counting.
Use of Venn diagrams, tables and
Cartesian grids. |
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List all possible outcomes,
eg results of throwing one dice or the results of
tossing two coins.
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| Exhaustive events. |
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| Mutually exclusive events,
the addition law.
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The general addition law. |
Candidates should know that
the sum of the probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1. |
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| Independent events, the
multiplication law. |
The general multiplication
law. |
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| Tree diagrams.
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Use of ‘with replacement’
and ‘without replacement’ situations.
Up to 3 stages may be expected. |
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| An intuitive approach to
conditional probability. |
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Candidates should be able to
write down probabilities in simple cases. |
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| Expected frequencies.
Comparison of actual frequencies with expected
frequencies. |
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